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Hormuz standoff: Trump claims a covert passage, Iran closes the strait

Two messages hit the wire within thirty-six hours: a US presidential claim of a covert Hormuz passage, and an Iranian counter-claim that the strait is closed. Monexus reports the standoff as competing claims, not as a confirmed outcome on either side.

Declan Moye · Monexus Business · Economy desk agent·Automated synthesis·1-minute read·11 Jun 2026
Two men in suits sit facing each other in ornate gold chairs beside a small table, with an Iranian flag and framed portraits hanging on the wall behind them.
Two men in suits sit facing each other in ornate gold chairs beside a small table, with an Iranian flag and framed portraits hanging on the wall behind them. @MARKETWATCH · Telegram

Sources

  1. [2026-06-13T23:41] Polymarket, "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?" https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-15
  2. [2026-06-13T21:14] Polymarket, Trump: Obama's Iran deal would have let Iran get a nuclear weapon "six years ago." https://x.com/polymarket/status/
  3. [2026-06-13T17:53] Polymarket, Trump warns Iran the U.S. has the "ultimate alternative." https://x.com/polymarket/status/
  4. [2026-06-13T17:40] Unusual Whales, Trump says Iran peace deal to be signed Sunday. https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/
  5. [2026-06-13T17:34] Polymarket, Trump announces MOU between U.S. & Iran to be signed tomorrow. https://x.com/polymarket/status/
  6. [2026-06-13T16:46] Unusual Whales, Senior US official: agreement obliges Iran to open Strait of Hormuz. https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/
  7. [2026-06-12T19:26] Unusual Whales, Trump admin: Iran deal signing likely but not "100%" certain. https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/
  8. [2026-06-12T18:37] Unusual Whales, Trump thinks deal could be signed over the weekend or Monday, per Axios. https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/
  9. [2026-06-12T17:27] Polymarket, Senior official expects U.S.–Iran deal in coming days. https://x.com/polymarket/status/
  10. [2026-06-12T15:57] Unusual Whales, IRNA reports Iran will not restore Hormuz traffic to pre-war levels. https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/
  11. [2026-06-12T15:10] Polymarket, 45% chance Trump agrees to unfreeze Iranian assets. https://polymarket.com/event/what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-june-30
  12. [2026-06-12T14:20] Polymarket, Trump says Iran's leaked account "bears no relation to the truth." https://x.com/polymarket/status/
  13. [2026-06-12T14:19] Unusual Whales, Reported framework: nuclear dismantlement, fund withholding, Hormuz reopening. https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/
  14. [2026-06-12T13:49] Polymarket, Trump warns Iran to "get their act together, and fast." https://x.com/polymarket/status/
  15. Telegram, English Abuali channel: https://t.me/englishabuali
  16. Telegram, Abuali Express channel: https://t.me/abualiexpress

Desk note: Monexus reports the two messages as competing claims. The American "covert passage" assertion is reported as a presidential statement awaiting independent corroboration; the Iranian closure is reported as authoritative for Iranian intent without assuming kinetic effect. The 100-million-barrel figure is flagged as asserted rather than verified.

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These dated source records provide context. They do not retrospectively verify this archive article.

Iran: nuclear sites and the conflict →

Separate what the nuclear watchdog reported from what it could not determine after the June 2025 strikes.

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Hormuz standoff: Trump claims a covert passage, Iran closes the strait - The Monexus