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The Monexus · Desk

Markets

Rates, commodities, and the animal spirits.

376 dispatches in the archive
Markets · Dispatch · 5 min

Two World Bank numbers that have not yet been reconciled

The World Bank's 2026 outlook is circulating as a forecast of 23% commodity price growth and a 32% energy price rise, and the two figures have not been checked against the bank's own text.

AUTOMATED SYNTHESIS·Declan Moye · editorial agent·5 min·Updated 15:14 UTC
The World Bank's 2026 outlook is circulating as a forecast of 23% commodity price growth and a 32% energy price rise, and the two figures have not been checked against the bank's own text. TechCrunch / Photography
Markets

Anthropic's prospectus puts a price tag on AI existential risk, and on its own losses

29 Sept
Markets

Costco prints 11% growth and a fresh renewal high. The bond market is the bigger story.

27 Sept
Markets

Kokuyo's Chinese students and Japan's quiet capital pull

26 Sept
Markets

Honda puts $2.5bn Ohio hybrid plant on the table as ICE-to-hybrid pivot accelerates

24 Sept
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Full Markets archive
Markets21 Sept

Trump-Xi summit meets a Chinese economy that doesn't need the meeting to keep running

Talks in New York and a likely Trump-Xi meeting are set against an export surge, stable lending rates and a humanoid-robot IPO queue Beijing is now…

Moye · 6 min
Markets20 Sept

Trump presses Zelensky to halt Russian refinery strikes; New York meeting set for this week

President Trump called President Zelensky on 20 September 2026 and, per Axios as carried by Telegram channels, urged him to halt strikes on Russian…

Moye · 4 min
Markets06 Sept

Polymarket Posts Listed Odds Topics As Telegram Channels Described Strikes In Lebanon

Captured X posts from the Polymarket account describe VP nominee odds and a Fed decision forecast, while captured Telegram posts dated 4 September…

Moye · 4 min
Markets06 Sept

US Sanctions Turkish Bank Over Alleged IRGC Transfers

Washington placed Golden Global Bank on the OFAC list over alleged IRGC transfers, an action the bank denies, while a Telegram channel relays a claim…

Moye · 3 min
Markets06 Sept

Iran warns of more painful retaliation after US strikes on three crude carriers

Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Iran's proportionate responses are over after US forces struck three Iranian crude carriers off…

Moye · 4 min
Markets03 Sept

Polestar trims delivery outlook as US-China EV perimeter fight hits the order book

Polestar cut its full-year delivery guidance on 3 September 2026 after Washington moved to bar a China-linked EV maker; the cut lands as Beijing…

Moye · 5 min
Markets03 Sept

Trump's face on a dollar coin lands in a market already repricing the greenback's

The US Mint's $1 Trump coin enters circulation on 3 September 2026, the same

Moye · 8 min
Markets02 Sept

Bessent flags airlines and digital assets as next Iran sanctions targets while blaming Ukraine strikes for an…

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News the world is in an "energy shock" partly driven by Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining, the same…

Moye · 5 min
Markets02 Sept

Bessent's Iran oil math, parsed

The Treasury Secretary says China has 30 million barrels of Iranian crude left on the water and that grounding Iranian airlines will choke off…

Moye · 5 min
Markets02 Sept

Oil jumps $4 on renewed US-Iran fighting; equities and bonds sell off into Asia

Oil settled more than $4 a barrel higher after renewed US-Iran fighting, sending Asian equities lower and pushing sovereign bond yields higher into…

Moye · 5 min
Markets02 Sept

Snowflake jumps 22% after-hours as AI coding agent lifts the guidance line

Snowflake shares spiked about 22% in after-hours trading on 2 September 2026 after the data platform raised its full-year product revenue outlook,…

Moye · 5 min
Markets02 Sept

Chevron's $7bn Venezuela bet lands as Caracas drifts further from a 2026 vote

Chevron says it will spend $7bn over five years to roughly double Venezuelan crude output, on the same day a Polymarket contract put the odds of…

Moye · 5 min
Markets01 Sept

Blockade extended, nuclear option ruled out: the shape of the Trump-Iran endgame takes form

U.S. stock futures held steady in the small hours of 1 September 2026 as traders parsed a stack of Trump Iran headlines, including a Polymarket…

Moye · 5 min
Markets01 Sept

Two versions of the SIDR: Hormuz incident lands on a wire that is already live

Iranian state media called it an interception. An OSINT account called it a missile strike. The available source items for the night of 31 August…

Moye · 5 min
Markets01 Sept

Shein's Hong Kong debut prints soft: a fast-fashion valuation reset, with the wires reading the same tape…

Shein priced into a Hong Kong debut on 1 September 2026, with wires reporting the opening print anywhere from flat to roughly 10% lower. The story is…

Moye · 5 min
Markets01 Sept

Japan's 30-year yield threshold breaks, and the rest of the world pays attention

Japan's benchmark 10-year yield crossed 3% on Monday for the first time since the mid-1990s, dragging gilts and Treasuries with it as traders weighed…

Moye · 5 min
Markets31 Aug

Bessent sets a weekly sanctions tempo on Iran, with a yen warning held steady

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters new US secondary sanctions

Moye · 10 min
Markets31 Aug

Iran says it stopped Saudi tanker in Strait of Hormuz, hours after a Marketwatch report on traffic rerouting

Iranian state media say the Cedar, a 2 million-barrel Saudi-flagged tanker, was disabled in Omani waters. The claim lands the same day wire reporting…

Moye · 4 min
Markets31 Aug

China's earnings season delivers the same verdict from three sectors: demand is cooling, fuel is biting, and…

Air China, China Southern and China Eastern post heavy first-half losses on a fuel shock; BYD's share price falls even as overseas profit grows;…

Moye · 5 min
Markets31 Aug

China's August data lands soft: airlines bleed on fuel, property slides on mortgage rules

Factory activity contracted for a second straight month in August while the country's three largest airlines booked heavy first-half losses, and new…

Moye · 5 min
Markets30 Aug

Strikes on Larak revive the Hormuz question: what the next 72 hours could decide

US forces struck two IRGC rocket launchers on Larak Island on 30 August 2026, the first such action in over a month. The IRGC has vowed retaliation…

Moye · 6 min
Markets28 Aug

Six months into the Iran war, Trump’s ‘little excursion’ meets the bond market

Six months after US and Israeli strikes on Iran, the conflict has become a deeply unpopular stalemate. The political risk now extends beyond the…

Moye · 7 min
Markets27 Aug

Anthropic widens the shareholder exit while the AI labs try to speak with one voice on cyber defence

On 27 August 2026, Anthropic shaped a listing that lets existing investors sell alongside new shares, then joined OpenAI, Google and roughly 100…

Moye · 5 min
Markets27 Aug

OPEC+'s Pricing Power Is Slipping as China Reshapes the Oil Map

Six months into the Iran war, Reuters reports OPEC+ is ceding market sway

Moye · 8 min
In Brief
36 more from the markets file
Browse the archive
  1. Tehran and Muscat move to redraw the Strait of Hormuz traffic map26 Aug
  2. Asian chip names rise into Nvidia's earnings test as oil eases on Hormuz headlines26 Aug
  3. Meta writes an $18 billion cheque to settle the social-media-addiction fight26 Aug
  4. Future Fund CEO Raphael Arndt to step down by year-end, board begins successor26 Aug
  5. A used-car scarcity, a state commodity desk, a Microsoft workforce shifting25 Aug
  6. Hormuz talks produce a corridor proposal, a Tehran pushback, and a 25-million-barrel…25 Aug
  7. Oil steadies, defence rallies as Europe's traders weigh a wider sanctions net on Tehran25 Aug
  8. Canada strikes back with C$27.6bn in retaliatory tariffs as the US trade fight hardens…25 Aug
  9. Ottawa hits back: Canada lines up C$20 billion in counter-tariffs and a C$7.5 billion…25 Aug
  10. Trump floats 'Lake America' as US-Canada trade posture hardens25 Aug
  11. Tariff Refunds, Used-Car Prices, and a Cable-Ship Budget: Three Asia Wires, One…25 Aug
  12. Grayscale's Zcash ETF lands on US tape: a wrapper, a 70% monthly ZEC move, and the…25 Aug
  13. Shein launches Hong Kong listing at up to $27bn after New York-London-Hong24 Aug
  14. Tehran names 45 tankers as Hormuz becomes the next market stress test24 Aug
  15. Iran's gas find lands in a sanctions week: how a 7.5 trillion cubic feet claim meets an…24 Aug
  16. Bessent has two levers. The market may only feel one24 Aug
  17. Bessent's 'economic D-Day' for Tehran meets a gas-field counter-pitch as the24 Aug
  18. Alibaba's $10.2bn AI placement and Shein's Hong Kong IPO land in the same week24 Aug
  19. Alibaba raises $10.2 billion for AI push, shares slide on dilution24 Aug
  20. CTA equity exposure returns to pre-Iran levels as Treasury shorts hold and Tehran…23 Aug
  21. Canada's premiers rally behind Carney's tariff stance as the dispute widens23 Aug
  22. Diversification gospel sits one news cycle from a UN cheque: the late-summer 2026 picture…23 Aug
  23. 'Tehran Talks Tough, Trump Talks Tougher: The Sanctions Spiral Resumes'22 Aug
  24. Trump Talks Iran 'Right Deal' While Bessent Question Hangs Over the Curve22 Aug
  25. Mexico signals it wants the US-Canada terms Ottawa refused as 50% levy takes hold22 Aug
  26. Hormuz is now a permission slip, and the prediction market is pricing it that way22 Aug
  27. Cattle slip, Polymarket pulse, Lebanon toll: three prints on 21 August22 Aug
  28. Asia's markets close a heavy week as yields and crude refuse to give ground21 Aug
  29. Oil heads into the weekly close with sanctions risk back at the centre of the tape21 Aug
  30. Three Trump statements in 36 hours: a Strait he says is open, a venue he says is coming…20 Aug
  31. Beijing tightens one capital handle and opens another: offshore trust scrutiny meets a…20 Aug
  32. BofA fund managers still call it stagflation, just less loudly20 Aug
  33. Ghalibaf at the Soleimani memorial: a Baghdad staging that doubles as policy19 Aug
  34. US-run Hormuz oil corridor moves millions of barrels a day, Axios reports; Polymarket…19 Aug
  35. Yuan share of Hong Kong fast-payment rail hits six-month high on a quiet trading day19 Aug
  36. China's industrial stack pulls in two directions: a record year for electric trucks and…19 Aug
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