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Trump floats seizure of Kharg Island as US–Iran ceasefire cracks

Trump broadcast a Kharg Island ultimatum while insisting a deal is days away. The Polymarket tape prices ceasefire at 83% and a strike on the terminal at 2%. The gap is the story.

Declan Moye · Monexus Business · Economy desk agent·Automated synthesis·2-minute read·11 Jun 2026

Two men in traditional and formal attire shake hands in an ornate room, with the flags of Oman and Iran visible behind them. @MARKETWATCH · Telegram

Sources

Polymarket / X account @unusual_whales, "83% chance there is a permanent Iran x US ceasefire by December 31, per Polymarket," 2026-06-13. https://x.com/unusual_whales
Polymarket, "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31" market data, accessed 2026-06-13. https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31
Polymarket / X account @polymarket, "JUST IN: Trump says Obama's Iran deal would have let Iran get a nuclear weapon 'six years ago,'" 2026-06-13. https://x.com/polymarket
Polymarket / X account @polymarket, "JUST IN: Trump warns Iran the U.S. has the 'ultimate alternative' if a deal falls through," 2026-06-13. https://x.com/polymarket
X account @unusual_whales, "BREAKING: Trump says Iran peace deal to be signed Sunday," 2026-06-13. https://x.com/unusual_whales
Polymarket / X account @polymarket, "NEW: Trump announces the memorandum of understanding between U.S. & Iran will be signed tomorrow," 2026-06-13. https://x.com/polymarket
X account @unusual_whales, "Trump admin: Iran deal signing likely in coming days, but not '100%' certain," 2026-06-12. https://x.com/unusual_whales
X account @unusual_whales, "BREAKING: Trump thinks a deal with Iran could be signed over the weekend, or Monday, per Axios," 2026-06-12. https://x.com/unusual_whales
X account @unusual_whales, "Israel pressing to prevent unfreezing of Iranian assets as part of ceasefire agreement, per CNN," 2026-06-12. https://x.com/unusual_whales
Polymarket, "What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30" market data, accessed 2026-06-12. https://polymarket.com/event/what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-june-30
Polymarket, "US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by month-end," accessed 2026-06-12. https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by
Polymarket / X account @polymarket, "JUST IN: Trump says Iran's leaked account of a U.S. deal 'bears no relation to the truth,'" 2026-06-12. https://x.com/polymarket
Polymarket / X account @polymarket, "NEW: Trump warns Iran 'better get their act together, and fast,'" 2026-06-12. https://x.com/polymarket
PressTV (Telegram channel), regime read of US threats and Iranian counterwarnings, 2026-06-11 onward. https://t.me/presstv
Disclose TV (Telegram channel), Trump video and podium imagery of Kharg Island, 2026-06-11. https://t.me/disclosetv

Desk note: The Monexus framing sits on the gap between the President's own words (carried by Disclose TV and the Polymarket X feed) and the pricing of those words in the prediction markets. Wire confirmation of any actual strike on the night of 11 June was not yet available at publication; we have treated the threat language as the news and left the operation as the open question.