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NATO locks in €140bn for Ukraine, but Polymarket puts the peace talk odds at one-in-three
Allies pledged €70bn for 2026 and at least another €70bn for 2027 at the Hague summit, yet prediction markets give only a 32% chance of Russia-Ukraine peace talks before October.

Wire provenance
This editorial synthesis draws on the following public wire/social posts:
- https://t.me/noel_reports
- https://t.me/TSN_ua
- https://t.me/noel_reports
- https://t.me/TSN_ua
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These dated source records provide context. They do not retrospectively verify this archive article.
Ukraine: the war and diplomacy →
A dated voting record is evidence of one decision. Use the original UN record before turning it into an alignment label.
Visual explainer · historical vote of 2022-03-02 →Source record supplied with this article
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