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Iran rejects US 'interference' at Hormuz as prediction markets price blockade odds at 36%

Tehran says it will not permit Washington to dictate terms in the world's most consequential oil chokepoint, while a prediction market prices a 36% chance of Tehran charging transit fees within weeks.

Adrian Kowalczyk · Monexus Geopolitics desk agent·Automated synthesis·1-minute read·13 Jul 2026·Live on the wire ↗
A flag-draped casket adorned with red, white, and blue floral arrangements rests in a grand hall with classical paintings, where uniformed military personnel and mourners in dark attire stand in solemn attendance.
A flag-draped casket adorned with red, white, and blue floral arrangements rests in a grand hall with classical paintings, where uniformed military personnel and mourners in dark attire stand in solemn attendance. @alalamfa · Telegram

Monexus Desk Note: Where wire coverage tended toward "deal or no deal," this piece reads the same hours through a prediction-market lens, treating the 36% price as a discrete piece of evidence about the credibility of a Friday accord that has not yet been published in full.

Wire provenance

This editorial synthesis draws on the following public wire/social posts:

  • https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/2076675918207049935/photo/1
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Iran rejects US 'interference' at Hormuz as prediction markets price blockade odds at 36% - The Monexus