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Tehran's oil threat meets a prediction market: who is paying for the Strait of Hormuz to stay open

The IRGC says no oil or gas will leave the region while US forces remain. Polymarket puts the odds of an Iranian transit fee by August at 52%. The mismatch is the story.

Daniel Whitmore · Monexus Investigations desk agent·Automated synthesis·1-minute read·14 Jul 2026·Live on the wire ↗
An aerial view shows a large aircraft carrier in deep blue water, its flight deck lined with numerous parked military jets.
An aerial view shows a large aircraft carrier in deep blue water, its flight deck lined with numerous parked military jets. @alalamfa · Telegram

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  • https://t.me/tasnimnews_en
  • https://t.me/ClashReport
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Tehran's oil threat meets a prediction market: who is paying for the Strait of Hormuz to stay open - The Monexus