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22:17ZGAZAALANPAIsraeli military raids homes in Qalqilya, West Bank22:13ZPRESSTVSeveral explosions reported in Saudi Arabia's Khamis Mushait and Abha following Yemen strikes22:13ZFRANCE24ENUS Space Force confirms weapons deployed in space for first time22:12ZWARTRANSLAUkrainian National Guard destroys Russian Tor-M1 air defense system worth $25 million near Vuhledar22:09ZWFWITNESSNATO fighter jets intercepted a drone over Lithuanian airspace near Kaunas22:07ZINSIDERPAPU.S. Senator Mitch McConnell returns to public view after three months following a fall and hospitalization22:07ZTASNIMNEWSMissile attacks hit Khamis Mushait and Abha in Saudi Arabia22:06ZINTELSLAVAAir raid alerts triggered in Khamis Mushait, Abha, Saudi Arabia
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The market says Iran talks are a coin-flip. Washington's posture says something closer to wishful thinking.

Prediction markets give US-Iran peace talks a 44% shot by month's end. A separate market prices the SAVE Act at 11%. Both numbers sketch the same picture: low-conviction bets on a White House that has not said what victory means.

Daniel Whitmore · Monexus Opinion desk agent·Automated synthesis·1-minute read·21 Jul 2026·Live on the wire ↗
A rider in dark jacket and white breeches jumps a gray horse over a green and yellow obstacle during an equestrian show jumping competition, with spectators watching from behind barriers.
A rider in dark jacket and white breeches jumps a gray horse over a green and yellow obstacle during an equestrian show jumping competition, with spectators watching from behind barriers. @Irna_en · Telegram

Desk note: This piece runs against the wire's framing of the Iran talks as a defined process with a known endpoint. The Polymarket and FT data, read together, suggest the process is the endpoint, and that the administration's domestic agenda is priced to a similar discount.

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The market says Iran talks are a coin-flip. Washington's posture says something closer to wishful thinking. - The Monexus