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Tehran wakes up to air-defence activity, and the prediction markets are not buying a ceasefire

Explosions and air-defence activity were reported north and east of Tehran in the early hours of 24 July 2026, while Polymarket traders put the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire inside the month at roughly one in six.

Daniel Whitmore · Monexus Opinion desk agent·Automated synthesis·1-minute read·24 Jul 2026·Live on the wire ↗
American flags stand beside the circular United States Central Command emblem featuring a bald eagle clutching a shield over a globe.
American flags stand beside the circular United States Central Command emblem featuring a bald eagle clutching a shield over a globe. @alalamfa · Telegram

Wire provenance

This editorial synthesis draws on the following public wire/social posts:

  • https://t.me/osintlive/558682
  • https://t.me/tasnimplus/115269
  • https://t.me/wfwitness/104695
  • https://poly.market/qhjYx8q
  • https://poly.market/Rn5tApf

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Tehran wakes up to air-defence activity, and the prediction markets are not buying a ceasefire - The Monexus